Calgary Market Update - Is the market HOT or DEAD? - Summer 2020

Posted by Jared Chamberlain

calgary_market_update_july_august_2020So, the big question here, is the market dead or is it hot? What in the world is going on? COVID has turned us upside down. We're wearing masks. The world is different. Kids are going back to school, some are, some aren't. This is not a conversation, a topic about what's right or wrong at this moment. Really, we want to sit and talk about the Calgary real estate market.

There have been a lot of people and clients that are making transitions right now. They're making moves. They are figuring out how to move up to a better home, a different home. They're realizing, they're working from home more over the last couple of months, and it's going to stay that way for a while. So, there's a lot of things that are changing in a lot of people's worlds

Watch the full video below, or continue below for the full transcript!

So, the market itself ... Right now, let me go back to this screen here. I want to share this screen with you. So, this is our market report. I think this will move as I go. If you go to this URL, and I'm going to post it in the comments for you, you can jump in there at any time, save this. We update this every month, and this report is something that we created ourselves. No one else has this. This is what we've put together for ourselves. And what this is, is we basically look at a lot of the different factors in the market. Now, I'm going to run through it really quickly, so you can get a sense of exactly what's happening here. These are the most recent numbers as of August 1st, is when we pulled it. You can see right there.

And right now, 72% of all homes listed have sold over the last three months. That is crazy. Since we've been pulling this report for the last number of years, I haven't seen it that high, I'm going to be really honest. There's a lack of inventory. The number of people, the number of buyers that are looking that are out there right now, man, there's a lot of them. And there's a lot of individuals who are looking for specific properties. If you are considering making a move up, there are some great resources that we have that kind of help you walk through. And we've realized that people who are moving up, this can be a fantastic market for that. That number, 72%, of all homes listed in Calgary has actually sold in the last three months. That number is usually 50, 45, 55, maybe 60, sometimes lower than 45 but, just thinking in the past, I don't recall seeing a 72% number there. So, to me, that is a huge indicator of where the market's at right now.

As we move through here, the City of Calgary's is currently sitting at four and a half months of inventory ... So, the City of Calgary is currently at 4.15 months of inventory, the total of 6400 homes in the market and 4600 homes sold over the last 90 days. Again, 6400 homes on the market is really one of those numbers that is not high at all. And so, there's a lack of inventory. If you're considering moving, selling your home right now is a great, great opportunity.

So, we have a question here. Let me see. "So, I'm thinking of buying a house, should I wait or buy now? I have a class in seven minutes, but I'll watch later." So actually, this is our Spanish coach, teacher for our girls. So, buying right now, or waiting to buy, it all depends on life changes, to be honest. I don't think prices are going to skyrocket and go up necessarily, but I don't think they're going to go down. Now, here's why, if you've got an inventory number of 6400 and 72% of those homes are actually selling, the reality is that prices are going to be pretty stable.

Now, I want to go back to this chart cause this might help understand a little bit of what's going on too. If you look, so right here you can see community statistics. So, on months of inventory, I have not seen this many green communities in a long time. I'm just scrolling through really slowly because I actually am quite surprised. So, green means zero to two and a half months of inventory currently. So, for example, I'm just going to pick one of these green ones. You got Huntington, you got Silver Spring, Scenic Acres, Tuscany.

So I've been helping Rebecca show some places, looking with some clients. Stuff in Tuscany is going so quickly. This is why 2.18 months of inventory in Tuscany. Now, what's happening, and this is goes back to your question, if you're thinking of buying in this market, you don't have something to sell and you're just planning on buying there's a couple strategies you got to look at. One, how quickly are things moving? Two, where are you buying? What type of product? Again, this is a general overview of what the market's doing, but the reality here is that you just got to be prepared. You got to know what you're looking for, and where it is, and jump on it when you're ready. Get pre-approved, talk to your bank, talk to lenders. We have a handful of fantastic mortgage broker, actually, as well as connections at banks too. So if you need that, just reach out and we'll help you.

But the thing is buying in these types of markets, you just got to move quicker. That's all. That's the reality of it. And if you're planning on purchasing, I do not think prices are going to go down. Now, there's all this talk of government money not sticking around after COVID, and people not having work and all of this out there. That could happen, I mean, I have no clue. None of us could have guessed that five, six months later we'd be sending some kids back to school in masks. This is not something I thought was a normal thing or reality in my world. The thing here is that this is something that we just really have to dig in, understand, and be prepared with what's happening no matter what.

It doesn't matter what the market is. If you're planning on buying and you're planning on staying there for the next five to seven years, most chances are you're going to be okay. You're going to be fine on the other side. And as long as you invest around the 1% of your home's value back into the home every year, and you're investing in your house, and keeping it up, and keeping up maintenance, you're going to be okay. That's the reality of it. So, if you have questions, reach out, you know where to find us.

We got another question here. This one's from Lisa. "So, can you narrow down the price points for the inventory? So 400 to 600, for example." So, Lisa, are you speaking specifically about across the city? Let me see if I can do that. So, not on this map. No, not on this map. Sorry, I'm scrolling really quickly here. On this map, what we can do, if you wanted to see like what types of neighborhoods are average price are 4 to 600. You can click these buttons down here. And above, you can actually see, here are the communities that are 4 to 600,000 average sale price. So, here you got Arbour Lake is 430. I'm just in the North, just for example. 427, Panorama. Down here on the South, Cranston is 449, 444.

So, let's use these examples, that's Cranston and Auburn Bay. So, if you wanted to look at, see what type of a market that is, we can go back up here, go to months of inventory, and then look at Cranston and Auburn Bay. So, those ones are actually at 3 to 3.1 months of inventory. So, this means they're sitting in a balanced market. This here is a seller's market, this is balanced, and these are buyer's. So, this is a balanced market so, for the most part, anything that's in this category is considered kind of good for buyers and sellers. It's fairly even. Here is, things are moving quicker. So, if you're a buyer you've got to jump on it faster. But if you're a seller, you definitely have some buyers sitting, waiting, looking for your property. So, if you're considering moving, it is a good time to list your home specifically. It is also a good time to buy because we are seeing some bottom. With the lack of inventory, we're seeing this being held up.

So, in one of our team meetings, or huddles we had the other day, I think it was just yesterday. What day is today? Tuesday, so yesterday. We had a meeting with our team. And in that meeting, one of the guys was saying that over the last about two to three weeks he's written about five offers. And in those five offers, every single one went to multiple offers. What? Multiple offers during COVID? Yeah, that's a thing. It's a big thing actually. And even Rebecca, was chatting with her about stuff. And she was even saying it was about an 800, 850 price point and that almost went to multiples, but she was able to get it for the buyer.

And so, it's a different market out there, not what we expected when we walked into COVID, that this is what it would be on the other side of COVID. Is this going to last? I don't know, I really don't know. But what I do know is that if you're thinking of making a change, we've had a soft market for a long time, we've had a market that hasn't necessarily been the best. Prices have been dropping. So, when you actually look at the data, and I don't have it here to show you, but when you look at the data of what has been happening in the market, let me say, from January until COVID started. So, March 15th, we've all got a COVID day. The day that you remember COVID started.

For me, it was 5:30 Sunday, March 15th, it's amazing how you remember this, I heard that school was canceled. What's going on? And that's what happened, that was when COVID started. But walking into that, the market was different this year. And I don't know if everyone noticed that who is an agent, and if you're watching and you are please speak up, I'd love to hear. But we noticed, and it felt that there was a very different market coming into this year. And so, the fact that we are continuing that market, I mean, you're going to see a post tomorrow on our social channels and Instagram feed. Over the last 61 days of June and July, our team has helped and gone conditional on 73 homes. That's crazy.

For us, we're having some record months forever. Like we've been doing this 15, 16 years, and these have been some record months for us. And not just like spring or summer markets, just period. And so, we went conditional on 40 homes in June, 30, well, 33, 32, something like that. Anyways, 41 and 32, I think the numbers were, but we did that and it's been incredible. I mean, the team here that we have is just fantastic. The agents here are phenomenal, and you're going to get some incredible service. We have some amazing tools. We have amazing things to help you make that transition and help you move up to your next home. If you're considering that, please, please reach out to us and learn about our strategies. You might have an agent that you want to work with, but getting a second opinion is okay. We're not here to force you to do anything. We just want to make sure you have the right information to make the right move for when it's ready for you.

So, I'm going to continue to watch this feed. If you have questions further about the market, please let us know. But feel free to go to that link chamberlaingroup.ca/calgary-real-estate-market with hyphens in the middle there, and look around, dig around, start getting a feel for what is in Calgary, what's happening in Calgary. Unfortunately, we do not have this exact type of map for Airdrie-Cochrane, or Okotoks, or Chestermere, or any rural stuff. We just don't have the data to be able to create this from our board, as easily I should say. So, with that, reach out. If you're in those areas and you want to know what's happening, for the most part, it's going to be a similar story. But reach out to the agent that you know that's on our team, or to myself, or in the comments here, and we're going to help you however we can, and make this work.

So, you are welcome, Lisa. There you go. "Thanks for the great info." You're welcome, Lisa. And we're going to start doing a lot more Facebook Live, just even straight up videos. Actually, to be honest, this has been my project this week. Setting up this studio, so we have a actual legit studio in our office now. So, I'm pretty excited. So, we're going to be able to start pumping out some great content for you guys. If there's things you want to learn, just let us know, again, in this comment box, or just DM us, send some info. If there's things that you're curious about. Let's do it.

So, that's what I got for today. So, signing out from Calgary, Alberta, Chamberlain Real Estate Group, our office here on Centre Street. And that's what we have. So, we hope you have a wonderful week. And, oddly enough, I think the Flames are playing. Five minutes into the first period. 3:30, what kind of game starts at 3:30 on a Tuesday? We'll see you guys later.

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